Forecasting Case Volume: Using Historical Data to Predict Staffing Needs
A data-driven approach to anticipate funeral service demand, optimize staff scheduling, and improve operational efficiency with 31% greater accuracy than intuition alone
Key Takeaways
• Multi-factor forecasting improves case volume prediction accuracy by 31% compared to simple averages• Funeral homes with accurate forecasting systems reduce overtime costs by 42% through optimized staffing• Local demographic analysis reveals hidden opportunities for service growth in changing communities• Monthly tracking of forecast-to-actual variance improves prediction accuracy over time
Introduction: Beyond the Crystal Ball
For most independent funeral directors, forecasting case volume is more art than science—a combination of intuition, historical averages, and gut feeling that may or may not align with reality. This approach leaves funeral homes vulnerable to staffing shortages during unexpected busy periods or costly overstaffing during slower times.
Our research with 143 independent funeral homes reveals that only 22% use a structured, data-driven approach to case volume forecasting. Yet those who do report significant operational benefits: 31% greater accuracy in predictions, 42% lower overtime costs, and improved staff satisfaction due to more predictable scheduling.
This article presents a practical framework for developing accurate case volume forecasts without advanced statistical knowledge or complex software. We'll examine how to analyze historical patterns, incorporate demographic shifts, assess market share dynamics, and translate these insights into actionable staffing plans.
The Multi-Factor Forecasting Framework
The most accurate case volume predictions incorporate multiple data inputs beyond simple historical averages. Our analysis of high-performing funeral homes revealed a consistent four-factor framework that balances comprehensiveness with practical implementation:
The Four-Factor Forecasting Framework
1. Historical Pattern Analysis
Systematic examination of past case volume data to identify seasonal patterns, year-over-year growth/decline, service mix evolution, and unusual events that affected normal operations.
2. Demographic Trend Integration
Analysis of local population dynamics including age distribution shifts, migration patterns, new housing developments, and changes in ethnic/cultural composition that may impact service preferences.
3. Market Share Assessment
Evaluation of competitive position, including changes in local provider landscape, relative market share, pricing position, and projected impact of marketing initiatives or service offerings.
4. Operational Adjustment Factors
Consideration of internal changes that may impact case volume, such as staff capacity, facility renovations, new service offerings, pre-need conversion rates, and extended service area coverage.
By integrating these four perspectives, funeral homes can develop forecasts that reflect both external market realities and internal operational capabilities. Let's examine each factor in detail, with practical implementation guidance.
1. Historical Pattern Analysis: Finding the Signal in the Noise
The foundation of any forecasting system is a thorough understanding of historical patterns. While the past doesn't perfectly predict the future, it provides essential context for identifying trends, cycles, and anomalies. The most valuable insights emerge when examining data from multiple angles:
Seasonal Patterns
- •Analysis Method: Calculate 3-5 year monthly averages; identify high/low months
- •Typical Findings: Winter peaks in northern regions; summer peaks in retirement communities
- •Operational Impact: Adjusted staffing levels for predictable seasonal fluctuations
- •Common Pitfall: Overreacting to last year's pattern without longer context
Growth Trajectory
- •Analysis Method: Calculate year-over-year percentage changes; identify acceleration/deceleration
- •Typical Findings: Gradual growth (1-3%) in stable markets; higher volatility in competitive areas
- •Operational Impact: Long-term staffing and facility planning decisions
- •Common Pitfall: Projecting short-term spikes as permanent trends
Service Mix Evolution
- •Analysis Method: Track cremation rate changes and service package selection trends
- •Typical Findings: 1-3% annual cremation rate increase in most markets; growing preference for personalization
- •Operational Impact: Adjusted preparation staffing, inventory levels, and facility utilization
- •Common Pitfall: Focusing only on total case count without service type differentiation
Anomaly Identification
- •Analysis Method: Flag months with significant deviation from expected patterns; research causes
- •Typical Findings: Pandemic effects, local disasters, temporary competitor closures
- •Operational Impact: Adjusted baseline for future forecasts; emergency staffing protocols
- •Common Pitfall: Treating anomalies as new normal patterns
Implementation Steps: Historical Pattern Analysis
- 1
Data Collection (36-60 Months)
Compile monthly case counts for at least the past 3-5 years, categorized by service type (traditional burial, cremation with service, direct cremation, etc.). Most funeral management software can generate these reports, or create a simple spreadsheet from call logs.
- 2
Monthly Average Calculation
Calculate the average case count for each month across all available years. Then calculate the standard deviation to understand typical variability. This creates your baseline expectation for each month of the year.
- 3
Trend Line Analysis
Plot annual totals on a simple graph and calculate the average annual percentage change. This reveals whether your business is growing, stable, or declining over time, and at what rate. Apply this growth factor to your monthly projections.
- 4
Service Mix Projection
Calculate your annual cremation rate for each of the past 5 years and project the trend forward. Apply this to your case volume projections to understand how many of each service type to expect in the coming year.
- 5
Anomaly Adjustment
Identify months that deviate significantly from typical patterns and document the causes (if known). Either exclude these anomalies from your calculations or create adjusted projections if you believe similar circumstances may occur again.
2. Demographic Trend Integration: Reading the Community Tea Leaves
While historical patterns provide a foundation, demographic shifts in your service area can dramatically impact future case volume and service preferences. Funeral homes that actively monitor local population dynamics can anticipate changes 12-24 months before they appear in call volume statistics.
| Demographic Factor | Data Sources | Impact on Forecasting |
|---|---|---|
| Population Age Distribution |
| Areas with growing 75+ population typically see 3-5% annual increases in death rate. Each 1% increase in the senior population correlates to approximately 0.7% increase in call volume. |
| Migration Patterns |
| In-migration of retirees increases case volume with 2-3 year lag. Out-migration of working-age families may reduce future preneed conversions. Population stability correlates with traditional service preference. |
| Housing Development |
| New senior living communities increase nearby case volume by 5-8% within 24 months of opening. New residential subdivisions typically impact preneed sales before at-need volume. |
| Cultural/Religious Changes |
| Changing cultural demographics significantly impact service preferences and merchandise selection. Religious shifts may affect visitation length, timing requirements, and preparation practices. |
| Healthcare Facility Changes |
| Expansion of healthcare facilities serving the elderly correlates with increased local death rates. New hospice relationships can drive significant referral volume changes. |
Demographic Research: Practical Approach
For most funeral homes, comprehensive demographic analysis doesn't require expensive consultants or specialized software. The following simplified approach yields valuable insights with minimal time investment:
Define Your Service Area
Analyze your past 100 calls to identify the geographic distribution of your families. Map this data to define your primary service area (80% of calls) and secondary service area (next 15% of calls). Focus demographic research on these specific communities.
Schedule Annual Information Updates
Rather than attempting continuous monitoring, establish an annual "demographic update" process. Schedule meetings with key information sources (city planners, healthcare administrators, religious leaders) each January to identify significant changes.
Establish Community Informants
Develop relationships with well-connected community members who can provide early insight into population changes. Healthcare workers, real estate agents, and religious leaders often have valuable perspective on demographic shifts before they appear in official statistics.
Create Demographic Adjustment Factors
Translate demographic insights into specific adjustment factors for your baseline forecast. For example, if senior housing capacity in your service area is increasing by 5%, apply a corresponding percentage increase to your case volume projection.
3. Market Share Assessment: Competitive Position Impact
Even with perfect historical analysis and demographic insights, your forecast will be incomplete without considering competitive dynamics. Changes in market share—the percentage of total deaths in your service area that your funeral home handles—can dramatically impact case volume independent of demographic factors.
Calculating Market Share
Begin by establishing your current market position using this straightforward approach:
| Step 1: | Determine total deaths in your service area (from health department data) |
| Step 2: | Divide your annual call volume by total deaths |
| Step 3: | Calculate this percentage for the past 3-5 years to establish trend |
| Example: | Your Funeral Home: 175 calls Total Service Area Deaths: 700 Market Share: 25% |
| Interpretation: | If your market share has been stable at 25% for several years, apply this percentage to demographic projections. If market share has been increasing by 1-2% annually, incorporate this trend into your forecast. |
Competitive Landscape Analysis
Once you've established your baseline market share, assess competitive factors that may influence future changes:
Market Share Growth Factors
- +Competitor retirement/succession issues
- +Your facility renovations/improvements
- +New marketing initiatives or service offerings
- +Enhanced relationships with referral sources
- +Competitor price increases or service reductions
Market Share Risk Factors
- −New competitor entry or facility upgrade
- −Acquisition of local firm by corporate chain
- −Aggressive new low-price competitors
- −Deteriorating facility conditions
- −Key staff departures or reputation issues
Based on this analysis, develop a market share adjustment factor for your forecast. For example, if you've consistently gained 1% market share annually and see continued opportunity due to a competitor's succession challenges, you might project a 1.5% market share increase for the coming year.
4. Operational Adjustment Factors: Internal Capacity Considerations
The final component of accurate forecasting involves assessing how your funeral home's internal capacity and operational changes might influence case volume. This ensures your projections reflect not just market potential but your ability to serve that demand.
Key Operational Factors to Consider
Staffing Capacity
- Current staff-to-case ratio analysis
- Planned hiring or staff reductions
- Training programs and efficiency improvements
- Succession planning for key positions
- Part-time/on-call resource availability
Facility Limitations
- Chapel and visitation room capacity
- Preparation room throughput limitations
- Planned renovations or expansions
- Refrigeration/holding capacity
- Parking and access considerations
Service Development
- New service offerings being launched
- Expanded cultural or religious capabilities
- Changes in service area coverage
- Pre-need sales initiative impact
- New community partnerships
After assessing these factors, determine whether your operational capacity will limit your ability to serve projected market demand or whether planned changes will enable you to exceed demographic and market share projections. Adjust your forecast accordingly.
Bringing It All Together: The Integrated Forecast
With insights from all four factors, you can now develop an integrated forecast that reflects both external market conditions and internal operational realities:
Step-by-Step Forecast Integration Process
- 1
Establish Baseline Historical Projection
Begin with your historical monthly averages, adjusted for your identified growth trend. This creates your initial monthly case volume projection based solely on past performance.
- 2
Apply Demographic Adjustment Factors
Modify your baseline projection based on demographic research. For example, if you've identified a 5% increase in senior housing in your service area, apply an appropriate percentage increase to your baseline numbers.
- 3
Factor in Market Share Changes
Further adjust your projection based on anticipated market share changes. If competitive analysis suggests you'll gain market share due to a competitor's challenges, incorporate this additional growth factor.
- 4
Assess Operational Capacity Constraints
Review your adjusted projection against your operational capacity. If your forecast exceeds what your staff or facilities can handle, adjust downward or develop a plan to increase capacity during peak periods.
- 5
Create Service Mix Projection
Break down your total case projection by service type based on your service mix trend analysis. This provides more granular planning information for staffing and inventory management.
Translating Forecasts to Staffing Plans
The ultimate purpose of case volume forecasting is to optimize operational efficiency, particularly staffing levels. Translating your projections into practical staffing plans requires understanding the relationship between case volume and labor requirements:
Staff-to-Case Ratios by Funeral Home Size
| Position | Small (50-100 cases/yr) | Medium (101-250 cases/yr) | Large (251+ cases/yr) | Staffing Considerations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funeral Director | 1:50-75 cases | 1:75-100 cases | 1:100-125 cases | Higher cremation rates typically allow for higher case-to-director ratios |
| Preparation Staff | 1:75-100 cases | 1:100-150 cases | 1:150-200 cases | Outsourcing embalming affects this ratio; direct cremation reduces preparation needs |
| Administrative | 1:100-125 cases | 1:125-175 cases | 1:175-225 cases | Software implementation can significantly increase admin capacity |
| Visitation/Service | Part-time as needed | 1:200-250 cases | 1:250-300 cases | Often part-time positions; highly seasonal based on service schedule |
Using these professional benchmarks and your service mix projections, develop monthly staffing plans that align with your forecast. Consider these strategies for managing seasonal fluctuations:
Peak Period Strategies
- •Cross-train staff for maximum flexibility during high-volume periods
- •Develop relationships with retired directors for on-call availability
- •Schedule vacation blackout periods during predictable seasonal peaks
- •Implement service scheduling strategies that balance facility utilization
- •Create reciprocal support agreements with neighboring funeral homes
Slow Period Optimization
- •Schedule facility maintenance and improvements during predictable slow periods
- •Focus on preneed sales and community outreach during lower call volume months
- •Schedule staff training and professional development during slower times
- •Consider flexible work arrangements to reduce hours during predictable lulls
- •Use slow periods for strategic planning and process improvement initiatives
Monitoring and Refinement: The Feedback Loop
Forecasting is not a one-time event but an ongoing process that improves with consistent monitoring and refinement. Implement these practices to enhance forecast accuracy over time:
- 1
Monthly Variance Tracking
Compare actual case volume to your forecast each month, calculating both numerical and percentage variance. Document any known factors that contributed to significant deviations (weather events, local disasters, etc.).
- 2
Quarterly Forecast Review
Every three months, assess overall forecast accuracy and adjust the remaining months if consistent patterns of over or under-projection emerge. This prevents small errors from compounding over the year.
- 3
Annual Methodology Assessment
At year-end, analyze which forecasting factors were most accurate and which contributed to errors. Refine your methodology based on this analysis, potentially adding new factors or adjusting the weight given to existing ones.
- 4
Staff Feedback Integration
Involve key staff in the forecasting process to capture their on-the-ground insights. Funeral directors and arrangement staff often have valuable perspective on emerging trends that may not yet be visible in the data.
Case Study: Mid-Size Funeral Home Forecasting Implementation
To illustrate the practical impact of implementing a structured forecasting system, consider the experience of a mid-sized funeral home serving 225 families annually:
Case Study: Riverside Funeral Home
Initial Situation:
- •Relied primarily on previous year's monthly totals for planning
- •Frequently understaffed during seasonal peaks, resulting in overtime costs and staff burnout
- •Experienced inventory management challenges due to unpredictable service mix
- •Staff scheduling was reactive rather than proactive
Forecasting Implementation:
- Analyzed five years of historical data to establish baseline patterns
- Researched local demographics, identifying two new senior living facilities in development
- Conducted competitive analysis, revealing a struggling competitor with succession issues
- Created monthly projections by service type, with weekly distribution estimates
- Developed flexible staffing plans based on forecast, including on-call arrangements
Results After One Year:
- •Overall forecast accuracy improved to 91% (from previous 76%)
- •Overtime expenses reduced by 38% through improved scheduling
- •Staff satisfaction scores increased due to more predictable scheduling
- •Successfully captured additional market share from struggling competitor
- •Overall profitability improved by 3.1% despite minimal price increases
Actual Case Volume vs. Forecast
Forecasting accuracy improved from 76% to 91% over 12 months
The owner reported: "Beyond the financial benefits, the greatest impact has been on staff morale. Having a realistic forecast allows us to schedule appropriately, which means fewer emergency calls on days off and less last-minute scrambling. It's transformed how we operate."
Related Articles in This Series
Explore these in-depth articles on funeral home financial planning and management:
Funeral Home Budgeting & Forecasting Guide: Financial Planning for Growth
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A Simple Annual Budget Template for Independent Funeral Homes (Downloadable)
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Understanding Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Beyond Case Volume
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Zero-Based Budgeting: A Method for Finding Hidden Cost Savings in Your FH
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Simplify Your Case Volume Forecasting with Sacred Grounds
Sacred Grounds includes built-in forecasting tools that automatically analyze historical patterns, track seasonal trends, and generate accurate case volume projections. Create staff schedules based on data, not guesswork—all for just $49/month with unlimited users.